In March 2023, the Second Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA2) identified $411 billion worth of investments required for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The World Bank Group’s new report “Private Sector Opportunities for a Green and Resilient Reconstruction in Ukraine”, developed in cooperation with Ukraine’s government, assesses the potential for private financing to meet these needs under both a status quo scenario and a scenario with reforms and other sectoral interventions.
Under the non-reform scenario, which envisions a continuation of pre-invasion economic dynamics, private investments are estimated to generate over $73 billion, or 18 percent of the investment needs identified in RDNA2. Under a scenario where the Ukrainian government accelerates economic reforms, addresses sectoral needs, and deepens EU integration, Ukraine could see nearly $130 billion in private sector investments flow into the country. This would cover about one third of needs identified in the RDNA2 and open an additional $282 billion in further private sector opportunities to boost Ukraine’s development. This report, which is a synthesis version of the broader assessment, includes an overview of the assumptions used for the projections under both scenarios and lists a table of critical reforms that could help unlock private sector financing.