Fresh Ideas About Business in Emerging Markets

Private credit broadly refers to nonbank lending to firms. Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–2009, private credit has grown considerably. Although the phenomenon of private credit is more predominant in the United States and the United Kingdom, it is also a growing asset class in emerging markets. Private credit appeals to borrowers because of bespoke, structured solutions, longer maturities, greater flexibility, and ease of doing business. Investors also like private credit, because of its attractive risk-adjusted returns. The global economic shock resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic has seen marked changes in production and consumption patterns in the real economy, with ripple effects in credit markets. Uncertainty and increased risk aversion spiked a rush to top up liquidity—the so-called ‘dash for cash’— primarily in the bank-intermediated credit and public capital markets.

Tertiary and vocational learning is widely recognized as critical for all countries’ economic success. While progress has been made toward achieving the 4th United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 4) by 2030—“Ensure Inclusive and Equitable Quality Education and Promote Lifelong Learning for All”—a 2019 UN report shows that some 750 million adults are functionally illiterate. These statistics illustrate the enormous challenge of adequately preparing the workforce for rapid technological change that will require continual reskilling. Although machines with artificial intelligence are likely to replace millions of workers across the world, AI also has great potential to enable workers to keep up with technological change and remain employable. This note attempts to illustrates how AI can support post-secondary learning across the entire tertiary and vocational education sector in emerging markets.

Textile and apparel manufacturing is a critical creator of formalized jobs, a well-known path to industrialization, and an enabler of value chain relationships that modernize economies and make them more complex. Today, value chains that support the textile and apparel industries are rapidly evolving. They are integrating new technologies, embracing workplace innovations, adopting sustainable efficiencies, and inventing products and processes to meet the changing demands of global consumers and markets.

This note explores the factors in specific tourism destinations that contribute to pandemic-related vulnerability, as well as the factors that support the resilience of the tourism sector. Examining all these factors together provides a snapshot of the countries as well as the subsectors that are most likely to recover first, as well as those that will require greater support to weather and recover from the crisis.

Deep tech companies aim to address the world’s biggest challenges. These include providing Internet access to the unconnected, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, significantly increasing productivity gains across industries, and helping to solve many other intractable problems, particularly in emerging market and developing economies. A deep tech company brings transformative technology from the lab to the market, and democratized research infrastructure and increased available funding has led to the rise of deep tech companies globally, including in emerging markets. Yet commercialization is critical to realizing the benefits of deep tech solutions, and deep tech firms often struggle to successfully commercialize their breakthroughs.

This report underscores the urgency of action and shares ways that companies are using natural capital approaches to build sustainability and resilience in their business models, while also helping to make markets more sustainable and resilient. The report explores three distinct shifts taking place in the relationship between businesses and nature, and how businesses are integrating these shifts into strategic and operational decision-making. It also provides a landscape-level perspective that is increasingly important in key sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and infrastructure, and introduces market diagnostic tools that can help identify opportunities for shared solutions. The insights from these experiences show that shared solutions create shared value, and that this results not only in stronger resilience for all participants, but also a shared resilience across communities, landscapes, and markets.

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a significant negative impact on the private sector in developing economies, and businesses and individuals in fragile and conflict-affected situations are among the most severely affected. The pandemic has evolved rapidly from a health emergency to a global economic crisis, spreading through the real sector and posing growing risks to financial systems. Notable sector-level impacts include supply- and demand-based shocks to infrastructure and private healthcare; disruptions to imports, exports, and global and local value chains; and declining agribusiness activity that threatens food insecurity, all leading to financial sector instability.

Nature’s current decline, underpinned by unsustainable consumption and production patterns, population dynamics, deforestation, and land use change, is a clear risk to business, markets, and society. The way that businesses measure, value, relate to, and account for the interaction between nature and people must evolve, and quickly. This note underscores the urgency of action and shares ways companies can use natural capital approaches to help maintain both nature and their ongoing role in advancing prosperity and development in emerging markets.

Significant investments in health technology, including those using digital health and artificial intelligence, are expected to contribute to bridging the health service gap in emerging markets, given the potential of these new innovations to reach underserved patients. Many health-tech innovators are integrating AI into their product solutions, with early examples showing promise in improving diagnoses, reducing costs, and enabling access to remote health services.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic shutdown have severely depressed electricity demand across the globe, with acute consequences for the revenues and financial health of utilities, as well as smaller providers of utility services and off-grid companies. In many places, utility service providers also must manage the inability of consumers to pay for their services. Government support has been forthcoming, but utilities need to work closely with policymakers to ensure that programs are carefully designed in order to maintain ongoing system reforms, competitiveness, and affordability, and avoid long-lasting market disruptions. These support measures should avoid redundancy among sectors and ensure that resources are efficiently allocated and that welfare improvements are fairly distributed across the country in a sustainable manner. Investors must also understand changes to utilities’ finances and should work to support further reforms.

This report explores the latest AI applications and trends in emerging markets and includes several examples of how AI is expanding opportunities and contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. It also sheds light on how investors, clients, and governments can harness its full potential while minimizing its risks—when managed effectively and with safeguards in place, AI can facilitate private investment to reduce poverty and improve lives at a pace inconceivable only a decade ago.

Social bonds have become an increasingly popular fixed-income product since the Social Bond Principles were published in 2017, and their growth and popularity have accelerated in recent months due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting need for new funding avenues to address the unforeseen economic and social disruptions. Since the outbreak of the crisis, global issuances of social bonds have risen considerably, and an increasing number of market participants have turned to IFC, a prolific and experienced issuer of social bonds, for advice on how to set up Social Bond Programs and Social Bond Frameworks. The hope now is that social bonds can become a significant method for financing projects that mitigate the socioeconomic impact of the current health crisis, and that the growing use of and interest in these bonds can be sustained post-crisis.

This note highlights the East Asian lessons that African nations, and Ethiopia in particular, are putting to use. These include focusing on competitiveness in select industries, acquiring know-how from global leaders, seeking foreign partners and investment, and developing a national strategy to create the industries of the future. The application of these lessons is also of interest to private investors, as it can allow them to identify the economies utilizing Economic Fitness analyses and thus offer opportunities for growth and investment.

As advances in machine learning, computer vision, and robotics help manufacturers around the world improve their processes and produce new and more complex products, artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an integral tool of modern manufacturing, and one that is increasingly important to the industry’s future. By combining large volumes of data with the computing power to simulate human thinking, AI is increasing the efficiency, capacity, and complexity of factory floors, and is introducing robotics, the Internet of Things, and other cutting-edge innovations to manufacturing value chains across the globe.

Achieving gender equality will require significant amounts of accurate data about the situations and struggles of women and girls. Globally, however, there is a major gap in data that is disaggregated by sex, and this gap often renders women’s societal, cultural, and economic contributions and obstacles practically invisible. It can also exacerbate existing gender divides, feeding and reinforcing biases in social programs, access to financial and other services, economic opportunities, and even development programs designed to address gender inequality. Part of the solution may be in the form of big data, which, if used effectively, can provide the volume of data needed to portray women and their situations accurately, which in turn can inform the creation of evidence-based solutions.

Artificial intelligence technologies are permeating financial services sectors around the world. The application of these technologies in emerging markets allows financial service providers to further automate their business processes and to leverage new and big data sources to overcome obstacles— including the high cost of serving rural and low-income customers and establishing customer identity and creditworthiness—that prevent the delivery of financial services to many consumers. Realizing financial inclusion benefits through the adoption of artificial intelligence relies on its responsible adoption by firms, on competitive market settings, and on continued investment in the necessary infrastructure.

The COVID-19 crisis is expected to roll back some of the progress made against global poverty over the last two decades, with the greatest impact on individuals at the base of the economic pyramid. Inclusive businesses that expand access to goods, services, and livelihoods for these individuals are responding to the crisis by reorienting and adapting their inclusive business models and operations. This note highlights seven actions that companies are taking to address needs at the base of the pyramid. We present their actions here as examples of what other businesses could do in response to the needs of those at the base of the pyramid.

The COVID-19 pandemic shows that digital connectivity is critical to societal resilience and business continuity in times of crisis. For digital infrastructure providers in emerging markets, higher demand for connectivity may be counterbalanced by a series of negative shocks. These could affect broadband operators and smaller companies, leading to less competition, limited availability of open-access broadband infrastructure, and reduced technological innovation. However, the perceived value of digital connectivity is likely to rise, creating opportunities to implement policy reforms to accelerate the rollout of 4G and 5G. Digital infrastructure companies, however, may accelerate their migration toward diversified business models. Against a background of funding withdrawal from emerging markets, financing for smaller or independent companies in the poorest economies may require substantial support from development finance institutions to preserve competition, improve resilience, and pr

Business models utilizing artificial intelligence can help meet rising global demand for food and support a more inclusive and sustainable food system by: (1) enhancing the resilience of farming methods; (2) reducing the cost of quality inputs and services to underserved farmers; and (3) improving market access to facilitate smallholder farmer integration into regional and global supply chains. Although nascent in emerging economies, applications for artificial intelligence in agribusiness will proliferate as farmers’ access to the Internet and adoption of smart devices increases across low-income countries.

The energy sector worldwide faces growing challenges related to rising demand, efficiency, changing supply and demand patterns, and a lack of analytics needed for optimal management. These challenges are more acute in emerging market nations. Efficiency issues are particularly problematic, as the prevalence of informal connections to the power grid means a large amount of power is neither measured nor billed, resulting in losses as well as greater CO2 emissions, as consumers have little incentive to rationally use energy they don’t pay for. The power sector in developed nations has already begun to use artificial intelligence and related technologies that allow for communication between smart grids, smart meters, and Internet of Things devices. These technologies can help improve power management, efficiency, and transparency, and increase the use of renewable energy sources.

The adoption and diffusion of artificial intelligence and other disruptive technologies will play an important role in market creation and growth. Development finance institutions have a role to play in leveraging their investments to ensure that these technologies sustain both growth and development objectives. To this end, the authors propose adoption of a Technology Code of Conduct as a framework, supported by a set of practical tools for its operationalization, to assist IFC’s clients engaged in technology intensive projects.

The Progression Matrix is a tool that helps companies adopt the Technology Code of Conduct—a framework designed for IFC clients engaged in technology-intensive projects. In this addendum to Note 80, the Matrix identifies technical and business practices that help companies put principles of sustainable technology into practice in a way consistent with their stage of financing and maturity, including emerging, later-stage, and mature companies.

Digital connectivity has enormous potential to support development. Yet today some four billion people in emerging economies remain offline, partly due to a lack of affordable Internet access. Sharing infrastructure among operators and across sectors is a potential solution. It can accelerate digital connectivity at lower cost, especially in the least developed markets where returns to investment can be limited. It can also reduce investment costs and operating expenses for investors and operators, and increase their balance sheet sustainability. Sharing models can also benefit consumers by increasing competition, lowering prices, and raising service quality. The private sector has already embraced this model; further expansion requires targeted policies that promote competition and facilitate sharing.

Population growth and urbanization in emerging markets will mean expanding cities and rising demand for new housing in urban areas around the world. These trends represent an enormous opportunity to design, build, and operate the homes of tomorrow in intelligent ways that minimize energy consumption and carbon emissions, lower building and homeowner costs. Artificial intelligence will play a pivotal role in this effort by using data—including grid data, smart meter data, weather data, and energy use information—to study and improve building performance, optimize resource consumption, and increase comfort and cost efficiency for residents. AI will also analyze data collected from multiple buildings to improve building design and construction and inform future policy making related to construction and urban planning.

Domestic capital markets that are deep, efficient, and well-regulated can create access to long-term, local-currency finance. Interviews with market participants reveal four important findings. First, there are two distinct phases of capital market development, an embryonic phase in which the government is predominant and a mature phase in which the capital market starts to serve the private sector. Second, capital market development requires continuous monitoring and policy interventions due to changing market stages. Third, while capital markets are a crucial source of large volume, long-term local currency finance, they often fail smaller countries and companies. Finally, as the capital market develops, intangible or “soft” factors become more important.